Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui
The AI’s call
Jauregui's striking volume and power overwhelm aging Demopoulos despite submission risk.
AI vs the market
AI 68% · crowd 50% on Jauregui (+18)
⚡ Our AI calls the upset. It picks Jauregui while the crowd backs the other corner — the loudest disagreement you’ll find on this fight.
The breakdown
Yazmin Jauregui enters as the younger, more explosive striker with a 7-2 knockout record and a +1.39 sig.strike output advantage (6.64 vs 3.37 landed/min). She carries a 12-inch reach advantage and superior leg reach, critical in strawweight striking exchanges. However, Jauregui has lost her last fight via submission and shows zero takedown or submission activity in her UFC profile—a red flag for defensive wrestling and grappling depth. Vanessa Demopoulos is 37 and riding a three-fight losing streak, but her record shows 4 submission wins and a 0.43 sub attempt rate, indicating submission threat. Demopoulos absorbs slightly more damage (5.39 vs 5.25) and her striking output is severely limited, but her experience and submission arsenal give her a path if she survives early exchanges. Jauregui's recent submission loss to Souza and lack of grappling data suggest vulnerability on the mat despite her striking dominance.
Demopoulos — edges
- Submission threat: 4 career wins by sub, 0.43 attempts/15min vs Jauregui's 0 subs
- Experience and fight IQ at 37 with 19 UFC fights vs Jauregui's 13
- Jauregui's recent submission loss shows grappling vulnerability
Jauregui — edges
- Striking output: 6.64 sig.strikes landed/min vs Demopoulos' 3.37
- Reach advantage: 64in reach, 36in leg reach vs 59.5in/34in
- Knockout power: 7 KO/TKO wins, 0.71 knockdowns/15min
- Age and athleticism: 25 vs 37, on the physical decline curve
X-factor
Can Demopoulos survive Jauregui's early striking barrage and drag her into deep water where submission threat matters?
How the market sees it ending
How it ends
Who lands the knockout
Tale of the tape
Physical
Age
Height
Reach
Record
Wins
Losses
Wins by KO/TKO
Wins by submission
Striking
Landed / min
Absorbed / min
Accuracy
Knockdowns / 15 min
Grappling
Takedowns / 15 min
TD accuracy
Sub. attempts / 15 min
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.