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UFC Fight NightWelterweightMain CardJul 26, 2026

Wellington Turman vs Islam Dulatov

The AI’s call

Islam Dulatov82%by KO/TKO · Round 1

Dulatov's elite striking output and perfect finishing rate overwhelm a fading Turman on a three-fight skid.

AI vs the market

Turman16%
Dulatov85%
AI

AI 82% · crowd 85% on Dulatov

Aligned. The AI and the market read this fight the same way — 3 points apart.

The breakdown

Islam Dulatov is a rising prospect on a 12-fight winning streak with elite striking output (8.78 sig.strikes/min vs Turman's 3.23) and perfect takedown accuracy. He lands 4.39 knockdowns per 15 minutes—a devastating metric—and has finished 12 of 13 opponents, with recent wins all coming in round one. Wellington Turman is a veteran on a three-fight losing skid, struggling against ranked competition (losses to Gooden, Brown, Petroski). Turman's striking defense is poor (4.17 absorbed/min), his takedown game is unreliable (21% accuracy), and he hasn't won since early 2022. Dulatov's size advantage (3in reach), superior striking volume and accuracy, elite finishing rate, and current form create a massive gap. Turman's submission skills (8 career subs) offer the only realistic path, but Dulatov's wrestling dominance and early-round finishing power make that unlikely to materialize.

Turman — edges

  • Submission experience: 8 career wins by sub vs Dulatov's 5
  • Veteran composure in longer fights
  • Teixeira camp wrestling pedigree

Dulatov — edges

  • 12-fight winning streak vs 3-fight losing streak
  • 8.78 sig.strikes/min vs 3.23 (2.7x output)
  • 4.39 knockdowns/15min—elite finishing power
  • Perfect 100% takedown accuracy

X-factor

Turman catches Dulatov early with a submission before the striking advantage compounds, but unlikely given Dulatov's pace.

How the market sees it ending

How it ends

Goes the full distance50%
Ends by KO / TKO50%
Ends by submission50%

Who lands the knockout

Turman by KO/TKO50%
Dulatov by KO/TKO50%

Tale of the tape

TurmanDulatov

Physical

27

Age

27
72"

Height

75"
72"

Reach

75"

Record

18

Wins

12
8

Losses

1
4

Wins by KO/TKO

7
8

Wins by submission

5

Striking

3.23

Landed / min

8.78
4.17

Absorbed / min

4.24
51%

Accuracy

55%
0

Knockdowns / 15 min

4.39

Grappling

1.55

Takedowns / 15 min

2.2
21%

TD accuracy

100%
0.78

Sub. attempts / 15 min

0

About these numbers

Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.

All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.