Wellington Turman vs Islam Dulatov
The AI’s call
Dulatov's elite striking output and perfect finishing rate overwhelm a fading Turman on a three-fight skid.
AI vs the market
AI 82% · crowd 85% on Dulatov
Aligned. The AI and the market read this fight the same way — 3 points apart.
The breakdown
Islam Dulatov is a rising prospect on a 12-fight winning streak with elite striking output (8.78 sig.strikes/min vs Turman's 3.23) and perfect takedown accuracy. He lands 4.39 knockdowns per 15 minutes—a devastating metric—and has finished 12 of 13 opponents, with recent wins all coming in round one. Wellington Turman is a veteran on a three-fight losing skid, struggling against ranked competition (losses to Gooden, Brown, Petroski). Turman's striking defense is poor (4.17 absorbed/min), his takedown game is unreliable (21% accuracy), and he hasn't won since early 2022. Dulatov's size advantage (3in reach), superior striking volume and accuracy, elite finishing rate, and current form create a massive gap. Turman's submission skills (8 career subs) offer the only realistic path, but Dulatov's wrestling dominance and early-round finishing power make that unlikely to materialize.
Turman — edges
- Submission experience: 8 career wins by sub vs Dulatov's 5
- Veteran composure in longer fights
- Teixeira camp wrestling pedigree
Dulatov — edges
- 12-fight winning streak vs 3-fight losing streak
- 8.78 sig.strikes/min vs 3.23 (2.7x output)
- 4.39 knockdowns/15min—elite finishing power
- Perfect 100% takedown accuracy
X-factor
Turman catches Dulatov early with a submission before the striking advantage compounds, but unlikely given Dulatov's pace.
How the market sees it ending
How it ends
Who lands the knockout
Tale of the tape
Physical
Age
Height
Reach
Record
Wins
Losses
Wins by KO/TKO
Wins by submission
Striking
Landed / min
Absorbed / min
Accuracy
Knockdowns / 15 min
Grappling
Takedowns / 15 min
TD accuracy
Sub. attempts / 15 min
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.