Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev
The AI’s call
Davis's finishing power and striking volume overcome Aliev's undefeated record and wrestling base.
AI vs the market
AI 66% · crowd 40% on Davis (+26)
⚡ Our AI calls the upset. It picks Davis while the crowd backs the other corner — the loudest disagreement you’ll find on this fight.
The breakdown
Mike Davis is a veteran striker with 67% finishing rate (8 KOs in 12 wins) and proven submission chops, but he's 32 and just lost a decision to Fares Ziam two months ago before rebounding with a flashy flying-knee finish. Nurullo Aliev is an undefeated 25-year-old with perfect 11-0 record, but his profile is concerning: 9 of 11 wins are decisions, he averages only 2.72 sig strikes landed per minute with 45% accuracy, and has zero submissions despite 15 minutes of octagon time. Aliev's takedown rate (2.12/15min) is solid but his 44% accuracy suggests he's not finishing positions. Davis has the striking volume, finishing instinct, and experience edge; Aliev has youth, an undefeated record, and a wrestling base, but his decision-heavy resume and low output suggest he's a grinder without elite finishing tools. Davis's recent form (flying-knee KO) and superior striking output should carry the day against a defensive, volume-limited opponent.
Davis — edges
- 67% finishing rate (8 KOs/TKOs) vs Aliev's 18% (2 KOs in 11 wins)
- Proven submission threat (2 subs) vs Aliev's 0 submission wins
- Higher striking output and accuracy track record vs Aliev's 2.72 sig strikes/min, 45% accuracy
- Recent momentum: flying-knee TKO finish vs Ramirez
Aliev — edges
- Perfect 11-0 record vs Davis's 12-3
- 7-year age advantage (25 vs 32) and better position on age curve
- Solid takedown rate (2.12/15min) with wrestling base
- Undefeated streak and consistency in UFC
X-factor
If Aliev can wrestle Davis down and control pace for three rounds, his decision-heavy style could frustrate Davis's finishing attempts.
How the market sees it ending
How it ends
Who lands the knockout
Tale of the tape
Physical
Age
Height
Reach
Record
Wins
Losses
Wins by KO/TKO
Wins by submission
Striking
Landed / min
Absorbed / min
Accuracy
Knockdowns / 15 min
Grappling
Takedowns / 15 min
TD accuracy
Sub. attempts / 15 min
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.