Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis

Usman is a 39-year-old former welterweight champion moving up to middleweight, coming off a decision win over Buckley but carrying three losses in his last four fights (two to Edwards, one to Chimaev). Du Plessis is a 32-year-old current middleweight title contender with a 23-3 record, though he just lost a decision to Chimaev in August 2025. Du Plessis has superior submission threat (0.71 attempts/15min vs 0.09), better takedown accuracy (51% vs 44%), and a higher striking output (5.18 vs 4.16 landed/min). Usman's striking defense is notably better (2.67 absorbed vs 4.33), but at 39 and after recent losses to top competition, he faces a younger, more submission-heavy grappler in his prime. Du Plessis's recent loss to Chimaev is concerning, but Usman's age curve and lack of recent elite wins make this a significant uphill climb.