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UFC Fight NightWelterweightPrelimsJul 19, 2026

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seokhyeon Ko

The AI’s call

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani62%by KO/TKO · Round 2

Lebosnoyani's striking volume and finishing prowess edge a durable, wrestling-heavy Ko in a close matchup.

AI vs the market

Lebosnoyani35%
Ko66%
AI

AI 62% · crowd 35% on Lebosnoyani (+28)

⚡ Our AI calls the upset. It picks Lebosnoyani while the crowd backs the other corner — the loudest disagreement you’ll find on this fight.

The breakdown

Lebosnoyani is the more explosive striker with significantly higher output (4.77 vs 2.73 sig strikes/min), better accuracy (62% vs 59%), and a proven finishing rate—3 KOs and 5 subs in 10 wins. He's on a hot W5 streak with recent first-round finishes and is younger at 27. However, Ko is a more measured, defensively sound operator: he absorbs just 1.42 strikes/min (Lebosnoyani takes 3.72), has a 6-fight win streak, and boasts elite takedown accuracy at 63% vs Lebosnoyani's 30%. Ko's reach is only 1 inch shorter, and his leg reach advantage (37 vs 43.5) is negligible. Ko's wins are recent and include a head-to-head split decision over Philip Rowe just weeks after Lebosnoyani beat him—suggesting Ko's wrestling and control may be the differentiator. Lebosnoyani's losses both came by KO, indicating he can be caught; Ko has never been finished.

Lebosnoyani — edges

  • Significantly higher striking output and accuracy (4.77/min, 62%)
  • Proven finishing ability: 8 finishes in 10 wins
  • Younger (27 vs 32) and on sharper recent form
  • 0.93 knockdowns per 15 min shows power advantage

Ko — edges

  • Superior striking defense: 1.42 absorbed/min vs 3.72
  • Elite takedown accuracy (63% vs 30%)
  • Never been finished in 15 pro fights
  • Longer win streak (W6 vs W5) with recent quality wins

X-factor

Ko's wrestling control and defensive discipline could neutralize Lebosnoyani's power if he can secure clinches and takedowns early.

How the market sees it ending

How it ends

Goes the full distance55%
Ends by KO / TKO23%
Ends by submission16%

Who lands the knockout

Lebosnoyani by KO/TKO13%
Ko by KO/TKO14%

Tale of the tape

LebosnoyaniKo

Physical

27

Age

32
71"

Height

70"
72"

Reach

71"

Record

10

Wins

13
2

Losses

2
3

Wins by KO/TKO

6
5

Wins by submission

0

Striking

4.77

Landed / min

2.73
3.72

Absorbed / min

1.42
62%

Accuracy

59%
0.93

Knockdowns / 15 min

0

Grappling

2.79

Takedowns / 15 min

4
30%

TD accuracy

63%
1.86

Sub. attempts / 15 min

0.33

About these numbers

Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.

All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.