Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan

Cannonier is a 42-year-old veteran with elite striking volume (4.42 sig strikes/min) and a 61% finishing rate, but he's in sharp decline: three losses in his last five fights, including two TKO defeats to Imavov and Borralho, and a recent unanimous decision loss to Michael Page. His striking defense (4.35 absorbed/min) is porous for a middleweight, and at 42 the physical toll is evident. Duncan, 30, is in ascendancy on a four-fight win streak with superior striking accuracy (58% vs 50%), dramatically better defense (2.59 vs 4.35 absorbed/min), and a higher knockdown rate (0.5 vs 0.38). Duncan's losses came by decision only—no KO/TKO defeats—suggesting durability and ring IQ. The reach advantage favors Duncan (79in vs 77.5in), and his recent wins over Dolidze and Anders show he's facing ranked opposition and winning decisively.