Dustin Jacoby vs Uran Satybaldiev
The AI’s call
Jacoby's striking volume and accuracy overwhelm a limited striker, but age and recent KO loss keep this competitive.
AI vs the market
AI 64% · crowd 54% on Jacoby (+11)
10-point gap. Same winner, but the AI backs Jacoby noticeably harder than the crowd does.
The breakdown
Jacoby is a 38-year-old veteran with 22 fights and clear offensive output (5.4 sig strikes/min, 0.63 knockdowns/15min), landing at 48% accuracy. He's on a three-fight win streak with two recent KOs, though he suffered a brutal first-round KO loss to Dominick Reyes in June 2024—a red flag at his age against power strikers. Satybaldiev is a 31-year-old prospect with only 9 UFC fights, significantly lower striking volume (2.14/min at 25% accuracy), but he's dangerous on the ground with 1.69 submission attempts per 15 minutes and a recent submission win. The physical matchup slightly favors Satybaldiev (79in reach vs 76in), but Jacoby's striking output and accuracy are substantially higher. Jacoby's recent form is hot, but his age and the Reyes KO loss suggest vulnerability to precision power—something Satybaldiev hasn't demonstrated in his limited UFC sample.
Jacoby — edges
- Significantly higher striking output: 5.4 vs 2.14 sig strikes/min
- Superior striking accuracy: 48% vs 25%
- More knockdowns per 15min: 0.63 vs 0.85 (slight edge in volume)
- Three-fight win streak with recent KOs
Satybaldiev — edges
- 7-year age advantage (31 vs 38)
- Reach advantage: 79in vs 76in
- High submission activity: 1.69 attempts/15min vs 0
- Perfect submission record in UFC (2-0)
X-factor
Satybaldiev's submission threat could catch a volume striker; Jacoby's age and Reyes KO loss expose him to precision power.
How the market sees it ending
How it ends
Who lands the knockout
Tale of the tape
Physical
Age
Height
Reach
Record
Wins
Losses
Wins by KO/TKO
Wins by submission
Striking
Landed / min
Absorbed / min
Accuracy
Knockdowns / 15 min
Grappling
Takedowns / 15 min
TD accuracy
Sub. attempts / 15 min
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.