Alvin Hines vs RJ Harris
The AI’s call
Hines' UFC pedigree and recent form dominate an inactive, unproven Harris.
AI vs the market
AI 78% · crowd 56% on Hines (+22)
22-point gap. Same winner, but the AI backs Hines noticeably harder than the crowd does.
The breakdown
Alvin Hines is a UFC-tested heavyweight with 5 fights in the octagon, solid finishing rate (6 of 7 wins by finish), and recent activity through mid-2025. He lands 5.47 sig strikes per minute with 32% accuracy and shows submission threat (3 subs in record). However, he just lost a decision to Jhonata Diniz and absorbs 7.47 strikes per minute—a concerning defensive metric. RJ Harris is a massive red flag: his last fight was in June 2021 (nearly 4 years ago), his record is thin at 3-1, and his only recent activity shows a loss in 2012 to Levi Thompson by submission. Harris has zero UFC experience and appears to be a late replacement or journeyman filler. The gap in recent activity, UFC exposure, and current form is stark.
Hines — edges
- 5 UFC fights with octagon experience vs Harris's zero
- Recent activity through June 2025; Harris inactive since 2021
- Consistent finishing threat (6 of 7 wins by finish)
- Submission grappling credentials (3 submission wins)
Harris — edges
- 100% submission win rate (2 of 3 wins by sub)
- No losses by KO/TKO (defensive durability in finishes)
X-factor
Harris's 4-year layoff and lack of UFC tape make his current level impossible to gauge; ring rust could be severe.
How the market sees it ending
How it ends
Who lands the knockout
Tale of the tape
Physical
Age
Height
Reach
Record
Wins
Losses
Wins by KO/TKO
Wins by submission
Striking
Landed / min
Absorbed / min
Accuracy
Knockdowns / 15 min
Grappling
Takedowns / 15 min
TD accuracy
Sub. attempts / 15 min
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.