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UFC Fight NightFeatherweightMain CardJul 19, 2026

Alberto Montes vs Tommy McMillen

The AI’s call

Tommy McMillen68%by KO/TKO · Round 2

McMillen's undefeated record, reach, and striking volume overcome Montes' submission threat.

AI vs the market

Montes44%
McMillen56%
AI

AI 68% · crowd 56% on McMillen (+12)

12-point gap. Same winner, but the AI backs McMillen noticeably harder than the crowd does.

The breakdown

Tommy McMillen enters undefeated at 10-0 with a 3-inch reach advantage (74in vs 69in) and significantly superior striking output (9.87 vs 5.26 sig strikes/min), though his accuracy is lower at 53%. McMillen has shown finishing power with 4 KOs and 5 submissions, and his recent form is sharp—three straight finishes including a dominant R1 TKO. Alberto Montes is a submission specialist (7 of 12 wins by sub) with a 12-1 record, but his only UFC loss came by KO in R2 to Ira Lukowsky, exposing a striking vulnerability. Montes' last four wins are all submission victories, suggesting he's hunting the clinch and ground game. McMillen's length, striking volume, and knockout power give him the tools to keep Montes at distance and punish entries. Montes' submission threat is real—6.77 attempts per 15min—but McMillen has never been submitted and shows no takedown attempts, suggesting strong defensive positioning and clinch awareness.

Montes — edges

  • Submission specialist with 7 finishes and 6.77 sub attempts/15min
  • Recent form: 4-0 with three submission finishes in last 4 fights
  • Anaconda choke mastery—three of last four wins by same technique

McMillen — edges

  • Perfect 10-0 record with no losses or submission defeats
  • 3-inch reach advantage (74in) and 5.5in leg reach edge
  • Striking output nearly 2x higher (9.87 vs 5.26 sig strikes/min)
  • Knockout power: 4 KOs and 0.79 knockdowns per 15min

X-factor

Montes' clinch control and submission entries vs McMillen's range management and striking volume in R1.

How the market sees it ending

How it ends

Goes the full distance22%
Ends by KO / TKO32%
Ends by submission45%

Who lands the knockout

Montes by KO/TKO13%
McMillen by KO/TKO23%

Tale of the tape

MontesMcMillen

Physical

31

Age

28
67"

Height

72"
69"

Reach

74"

Record

12

Wins

10
1

Losses

0
1

Wins by KO/TKO

4
7

Wins by submission

5

Striking

5.26

Landed / min

9.87
4.44

Absorbed / min

5.54
61%

Accuracy

53%
0

Knockdowns / 15 min

0.79

Grappling

0

Takedowns / 15 min

0

TD accuracy

0%
6.77

Sub. attempts / 15 min

0

About these numbers

Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.

All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.