Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne
The AI’s call
Despaigne's reach, accuracy and form edge a fading Tuivasa in a clear but not dominant matchup.
AI vs the market
AI 68% · crowd 84% on Despaigne (-15)
15-point gap. Same winner, but the AI backs Tuivasa noticeably harder than the crowd does.
The breakdown
Tai Tuivasa arrives in freefall—seven consecutive losses, including submission defeats to elite grapplers (Volkov, Tybura) and recent decision losses to mid-tier competition. His striking output (3.37/min) remains respectable but accuracy has cratered at 49%, and he absorbs 4.61 sig. strikes per minute, a dangerous ratio at 33. Robelis Despaigne is a 36-year-old Cuban with a 6-2 record who just knocked out Junior dos Santos in May 2026—a statement win. Despaigne's striking is cleaner (60% accuracy, only 2.54 absorbed/min) and he carries a 9-inch reach advantage (84in vs 75in). Both lack grappling threat, but Despaigne's recent form (W1, KO finish) contrasts sharply with Tuivasa's spiral. The age and reach gap favors Despaigne, as does the quality of recent opposition.
Tuivasa — edges
- Higher striking output (3.37 vs 2.11 sig. strikes/min)
- More finishing power historically (13 KO/TKOs)
- Knockdown rate (0.82 vs 0.5 per 15min)
Despaigne — edges
- 9-inch reach advantage (84in vs 75in)
- Superior striking accuracy (60% vs 49%)
- Better striking defense (2.54 absorbed vs 4.61/min)
- Recent quality win over Junior dos Santos
X-factor
Tuivasa's desperation and power can stun Despaigne early; Despaigne's reach and footwork keep him safe.
How the market sees it ending
How it ends
Who lands the knockout
Tale of the tape
Physical
Age
Height
Reach
Record
Wins
Losses
Wins by KO/TKO
Wins by submission
Striking
Landed / min
Absorbed / min
Accuracy
Knockdowns / 15 min
Grappling
Takedowns / 15 min
TD accuracy
Sub. attempts / 15 min
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.