Ricky Simon vs Montel Jackson
The AI’s call
Jackson's defensive prowess and reach edge outweigh Simon's wrestling threat in a close, technical matchup.
AI vs the market
AI 58% · crowd 73% on Jackson (-14)
15-point gap. Same winner, but the AI backs Simon noticeably harder than the crowd does.
The breakdown
Simon and Jackson have met before, with Simon taking a unanimous decision in 2018. Both are 33-34 years old and operating at similar striking volume (3.03 vs 3.02 sig strikes/min), but Jackson's defensive metrics are sharply superior: he absorbs just 1.4 strikes/min versus Simon's 3.9, and lands at 52% accuracy versus Simon's 42%. Jackson also boasts a 6-inch reach advantage (75.5 vs 69in) and significantly better striking defense. However, Simon's wrestling output is notably higher (4.49 vs 2.71 TDs/15min), though Jackson's takedown defense is elite at 64% accuracy. Both are on poor form: Simon drew with Yanez and lost to Barcelos; Jackson has dropped his last two, including to the same Barcelos. Simon's recent KO of Basharat shows he retains power, but Jackson's defensive profile and reach advantage, combined with superior striking efficiency, give him the edge despite his current slump.
Simon — edges
- Significantly higher takedown output (4.49 vs 2.71/15min)
- Previous head-to-head victory via decision
- Recent R1 KO finish shows retained power
- Submission threat (4 career subs, 0.26 attempts/15min)
Jackson — edges
- Elite striking defense (1.4 absorbed/min vs 3.9)
- Superior striking accuracy (52% vs 42%)
- 6-inch reach advantage (75.5 vs 69in)
- Better takedown defense (64% accuracy)
X-factor
Simon's wrestling volume can overwhelm Jackson's defense if he commits early; Jackson's striking range and defense could frustrate Simon's entries.
How the market sees it ending
How it ends
Who lands the knockout
Tale of the tape
Physical
Age
Height
Reach
Record
Wins
Losses
Wins by KO/TKO
Wins by submission
Striking
Landed / min
Absorbed / min
Accuracy
Knockdowns / 15 min
Grappling
Takedowns / 15 min
TD accuracy
Sub. attempts / 15 min
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.