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Noche UFCLightweightPrelimsSep 13, 2026

Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu

Rafa Garcia

Rafa Garcia

19-4-0

63%

market

vs

Rongzhu

37%

market

AI breakdown coming soon

This fight is on the board and the market numbers are live below. The full AI analysis lands shortly.

How the market sees it ending

How it ends

Goes the full distance50%
Ends by KO / TKO50%
Ends by submission50%

Who lands the knockout

Garcia by KO/TKO50%
Rongzhu by KO/TKO50%

Tale of the tape

GarciaRongzhu

Physical

31

Age

26
67"

Height

69"
70"

Reach

71"

Record

19

Wins

4

Losses

2

Wins by KO/TKO

8

Wins by submission

Striking

4.28

Landed / min

6.05
4.42

Absorbed / min

5.38
44%

Accuracy

52%
0.1

Knockdowns / 15 min

0.67

Grappling

3.22

Takedowns / 15 min

1.34
46%

TD accuracy

63%
0.4

Sub. attempts / 15 min

0.13

About these numbers

Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.

All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.