Who won Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev?
Nurullo Aliev won the fight. Our AI picked Mike Davis at 66% — got this one wrong. The market's favourite was priced at 62%.
Mike Davis
Nurullo Aliev
What our AI said before the fight
Mike Davis is a veteran striker with 67% finishing rate (8 KOs in 12 wins) and proven submission chops, but he's 32 and just lost a decision to Fares Ziam two months ago before rebounding with a flashy flying-knee finish. Nurullo Aliev is an undefeated 25-year-old with perfect 11-0 record, but his profile is concerning: 9 of 11 wins are decisions, he averages only 2.72 sig strikes landed per minute with 45% accuracy, and has zero submissions despite 15 minutes of octagon time. Aliev's takedown rate (2.12/15min) is solid but his 44% accuracy suggests he's not finishing positions. Davis has the striking volume, finishing instinct, and experience edge; Aliev has youth, an undefeated record, and a wrestling base, but his decision-heavy resume and low output suggest he's a grinder without elite finishing tools. Davis's recent form (flying-knee KO) and superior striking output should carry the day against a defensive, volume-limited opponent.
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.