Who won Kamaru Usman vs Dricus Du Plessis?
Dricus Du Plessis won the fight. Our AI picked Dricus Du Plessis at 71% — called it right. The market's favourite was priced at 70%.
Kamaru Usman
Dricus Du Plessis
What our AI said before the fight
Usman is a 39-year-old former welterweight champion moving up to middleweight, coming off a decision win over Buckley but carrying three losses in his last four fights (two to Edwards, one to Chimaev). Du Plessis is a 32-year-old current middleweight title contender with a 23-3 record, though he just lost a decision to Chimaev in August 2025. Du Plessis has superior submission threat (0.71 attempts/15min vs 0.09), better takedown accuracy (51% vs 44%), and a higher striking output (5.18 vs 4.16 landed/min). Usman's striking defense is notably better (2.67 absorbed vs 4.33), but at 39 and after recent losses to top competition, he faces a younger, more submission-heavy grappler in his prime. Du Plessis's recent loss to Chimaev is concerning, but Usman's age curve and lack of recent elite wins make this a significant uphill climb.
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.