Who won Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan?
Christian Leroy Duncan won the fight. Our AI picked Christian Leroy Duncan at 72% — called it right. The market's favourite was priced at 77%.
Jared Cannonier
Christian Leroy Duncan
What our AI said before the fight
Cannonier is a 42-year-old veteran with elite striking volume (4.42 sig strikes/min) and a 61% finishing rate, but he's in sharp decline: three losses in his last five fights, including two TKO defeats to Imavov and Borralho, and a recent unanimous decision loss to Michael Page. His striking defense (4.35 absorbed/min) is porous for a middleweight, and at 42 the physical toll is evident. Duncan, 30, is in ascendancy on a four-fight win streak with superior striking accuracy (58% vs 50%), dramatically better defense (2.59 vs 4.35 absorbed/min), and a higher knockdown rate (0.5 vs 0.38). Duncan's losses came by decision only—no KO/TKO defeats—suggesting durability and ring IQ. The reach advantage favors Duncan (79in vs 77.5in), and his recent wins over Dolidze and Anders show he's facing ranked opposition and winning decisively.
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.