Who won Felipe Franco vs Levi Rodrigues Jr.?
Felipe Franco won the fight. Our AI picked Levi Rodrigues Jr. at 68% — got this one wrong. The market's favourite was priced at 57%.
Felipe Franco
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
What our AI said before the fight
Felipe Franco enters as a 10-fight veteran with a 10-2 record and heavy submission credentials (4 subs, 6 KOs), but he's dropped his last two fights—a decision loss to Mario Pinto in March 2026 and a submission loss to Freddy Vidal in September 2025. His UFC striking output (1.81 sig strikes/min) and takedown accuracy (38%) are modest, and he's absorbed 2.55 strikes/min, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities. Levi Rodrigues Jr. is a UFC debutant with only one pro fight on record, but that single data point is alarming: 4.5 sig strikes landed/min with 79% accuracy and 4.5 knockdowns/15min. His striking defense (2.1 absorbed/min) is sharp, and at 29 years old with a 76.5-inch reach, he has physical parity with Franco. The massive red flag is Franco's recent form—two straight losses—paired against a striker who has shown elite output and precision in his debut. Rodrigues' lack of grappling data (0 TDs, 0 subs attempted) is a potential opening for Franco's submission game, but Franco must survive the striking onslaught first.
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.