Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira
The AI’s call
Shahbazyan's finishing power, reach, and hot form overwhelm a fading, older Ferreira.
AI vs the market
AI 72% · crowd 60% on Shahbazyan (+13)
13-point gap. Same winner, but the AI backs Shahbazyan noticeably harder than the crowd does.
The breakdown
Shahbazyan enters on a three-fight win streak with explosive finishing power—13 KOs/TKOs in 16 wins and a 0.95 knockdowns-per-15-min rate that ranks elite. His recent form is sharp: three straight finishes including a round-one KO of Muniz in October 2025. At 28, he's in his physical prime with a 4-inch reach advantage (74in vs 72in) and superior striking output (4.06 vs 3.77 sig.strikes/min). Ferreira, 33, is coming off a brutal first-round KO loss to Rodrigues and shows declining form despite a win over Vettori. His striking accuracy is marginally better (51% vs 49%), but his output is lower and his takedown accuracy is poor (24%). Ferreira's submission game (5 subs, 0.75 attempts/15min) offers a path, but Shahbazyan's wrestling defense and recent dominance suggest he controls the pace.
Shahbazyan — edges
- Three-fight win streak with three straight finishes vs one-fight losing streak
- 4-inch reach advantage and 2.5cm height edge
- Superior striking output (4.06 vs 3.77 sig.strikes/min)
- Elite knockdown rate (0.95/15min) and KO finishing rate (81%)
Ferreira — edges
- Slightly higher striking accuracy (51% vs 49%)
- More submission attempts per 15min (0.75 vs 0.36)
- Five submission wins in record shows grappling threat
- Experience against top-ranked competition (Vettori win)
X-factor
Ferreira's submission game and grappling volume could catch Shahbazyan if he overcommits to striking early.
How the market sees it ending
How it ends
Who lands the knockout
Tale of the tape
Physical
Age
Height
Reach
Record
Wins
Losses
Wins by KO/TKO
Wins by submission
Striking
Landed / min
Absorbed / min
Accuracy
Knockdowns / 15 min
Grappling
Takedowns / 15 min
TD accuracy
Sub. attempts / 15 min
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.