Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura
The AI’s call
O'Neill's striking dominance and recent form overcome Moura's grappling edge; likely finish favors the striker.
AI vs the market
AI 68% · crowd 65% on O'Neill
Aligned. The AI and the market read this fight the same way — 4 points apart.
The breakdown
Casey O'Neill enters on a two-fight winning streak with a recent R1 KO, showing sharp striking output at 7.89 sig.strikes/min with 52% accuracy. She absorbs 5.53/min but maintains solid defense. Eduarda Moura is the more experienced grappler (3.58 TD/15min vs O'Neill's 1.4) with five submission wins, but her striking is significantly lower volume (2.57/min, 38% accuracy) and she just lost a decision to Cong Wang. O'Neill's striking advantage is pronounced, and her recent form—especially the knockout finish—suggests momentum and timing. Moura's wrestling could create scrambles, but O'Neill's submission defense (only 1 loss by sub in 11 wins) and superior striking output should dominate the exchanges. Age (28 vs 32) and recent form both favor O'Neill.
O'Neill — edges
- Striking output 3x higher (7.89 vs 2.57 sig.strikes/min)
- 52% striking accuracy vs 38%
- Recent R1 KO finish shows sharp timing
- Two-fight winning streak vs one-fight losing streak
Moura — edges
- Takedown rate 2.5x higher (3.58 vs 1.4 TD/15min)
- Five submission wins show grappling threat
- More UFC experience and ranked opponent history
- Never finished by KO/TKO (only decisions and subs)
X-factor
Moura's wrestling could disrupt O'Neill's rhythm early; if she lands a takedown and controls, submission threat is real.
How the market sees it ending
How it ends
Who lands the knockout
Tale of the tape
Physical
Age
Height
Reach
Record
Wins
Losses
Wins by KO/TKO
Wins by submission
Striking
Landed / min
Absorbed / min
Accuracy
Knockdowns / 15 min
Grappling
Takedowns / 15 min
TD accuracy
Sub. attempts / 15 min
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.