Who won Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll?
This fight has finished — the official result lands here automatically within the hour. Our AI’s pre-fight pick: Alden Coria at 76%.
Alden Coria
Stewart Nicoll
What our AI said before the fight
Alden Coria enters on a three-fight winning streak with recent finishes over Costa and Orpineda Ponce, demonstrating improved finishing instinct and momentum. His striking output (4.69 sig.strikes/min) and accuracy (45%) are notably superior to Nicoll's (3.63/min, 39%), and he absorbs less damage (2.4 vs 5.84/min). Coria's takedown accuracy sits at 50% despite low volume, suggesting technical proficiency when he shoots. Stewart Nicoll is in freefall, dropping three consecutive fights including a brutal body shot KO to the same Costa that Coria finished. Nicoll's defensive metrics are alarming—absorbing nearly 6 strikes per minute while landing fewer than 4—and his 12% takedown accuracy is a critical liability. At 31, Nicoll is aging into a decline phase while Coria (27) is ascending. The stylistic mismatch heavily favors Coria's cleaner striking and superior conditioning.
About these numbers
Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.
All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.