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Who won Alberto Montes vs Tommy McMillen?

Tommy McMillen won the fight. Our AI picked Tommy McMillen at 68% — called it right. The market's favourite was priced at 56%.

Alberto Montes

Alberto Montes

vs
Tommy McMillen✓ WINNER

Tommy McMillen

What our AI said before the fight

Tommy McMillen enters undefeated at 10-0 with a 3-inch reach advantage (74in vs 69in) and significantly superior striking output (9.87 vs 5.26 sig strikes/min), though his accuracy is lower at 53%. McMillen has shown finishing power with 4 KOs and 5 submissions, and his recent form is sharp—three straight finishes including a dominant R1 TKO. Alberto Montes is a submission specialist (7 of 12 wins by sub) with a 12-1 record, but his only UFC loss came by KO in R2 to Ira Lukowsky, exposing a striking vulnerability. Montes' last four wins are all submission victories, suggesting he's hunting the clinch and ground game. McMillen's length, striking volume, and knockout power give him the tools to keep Montes at distance and punish entries. Montes' submission threat is real—6.77 attempts per 15min—but McMillen has never been submitted and shows no takedown attempts, suggesting strong defensive positioning and clinch awareness.

About these numbers

Market probability is the live crowd consensus from Polymarket, a public prediction market where people trade on outcomes — we read it as a data signal for what the crowd expects, and it updates continuously. AI probabilityis our own model’s independent read of the matchup from fighter data alone; it never sees the market price, which is why the two can disagree.

All of it is published for analysis and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice, a recommendation, or a prediction of a guaranteed result — fights are volatile and upsets are the sport.